Some long-range weather models indicate that rainfall in the UAE could be above average from October to January as the country enters its cooler, wetter season.

However, Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology, stressed that residents should not interpret the outlook as a warning of severe storms or flooding directly caused by El Niño. He said that although some models suggest wetter-than-usual conditions, the exact amount of rainfall remains uncertain.

“Some models indicate that rainfall in the coming months, from October and November through January, will be above average, but no one can say with certainty how much rain will fall,” Habib said.

His comments come amid growing attention surrounding this year’s El Niño, a climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño can influence weather patterns around the world, but its occurrence does not necessarily mean a particular country will experience severe weather.

In a statement issued on September 11, the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology described this year’s El Niño as “very strong” and said it could signal beneficial rainfall. However, the centre noted that rainfall could at times become heavy if favourable atmospheric conditions develop over the UAE.

El Niño Does Not Directly Mean Flooding in the UAE

For UAE residents, this distinction is important: El Niño is a global climate signal, while local weather depends on atmospheric conditions developing across the region.

Habib said El Niño does not affect the UAE directly or in isolation. Instead, its effects may be felt through broader changes in atmospheric circulation, with outcomes varying from one region to another.

“El Niño does not directly affect the UAE. It is a climate phenomenon, meaning the whole world could be affected, perhaps East Asia, Europe or the Americas,” he said.

Habib added that weather records show El Niño has been present during some periods and absent during others.

The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology has also sought to counter social media posts warning of severe flooding or unusual rainfall as a direct consequence of El Niño.

Residents have been urged to rely on official forecasts and alerts from the National Centre of Meteorology when assessing the risk of rainfall or severe weather, rather than claims circulated on social media.

Local Conditions Determine Rainfall Levels

Although this global climate pattern can influence atmospheric circulation, local weather systems ultimately determine whether the conditions required for rainfall will develop over the UAE.

Significant rainfall requires several atmospheric factors to occur at the same time, including moisture, water vapour, surface and upper-atmosphere temperatures, and suitable pressure systems.

Habib explained that atmospheric phenomena such as Rossby waves can also influence where weather systems and heavy rainfall develop.

“At present, no one knows exactly where severe weather will occur because it depends on the pressure system. It could be in the Middle East, but it is unclear which country would be affected. It may occur over the sea or in another area,” he said.

For this reason, even with a strong El Niño under way, a specific weather event in the UAE cannot be predicted solely on the basis of this climate pattern.

“El Niño is currently active in the ocean, but the pressure system in our region has not resulted in severe weather conditions,” Habib said.

However, conditions could change as the season progresses. Long-range indications of above-average rainfall should therefore be considered separately from short-term forecasts.

For now, UAE residents can expect the usual gradual transition into autumn, with temperatures remaining high before declining later in the season.

Habib said daytime temperatures could still reach 44°C to 46°C, while higher overnight humidity could increase the likelihood of fog or haze, particularly in coastal areas.