The US news outlet Axios reported on Saturday, October 31, that Qatari mediators held more than 12 hours of talks in Tehran on Friday in an effort to secure an agreement between Iran and the United States, pave the way for the resumption of direct negotiations and prevent a new round of war after the US congressional midterm elections. Diplomatic sources said the talks would continue in Doha today, while an informed source reported “positive progress” in the Tehran discussions.

In a report by Barak Ravid, Axios said the diplomatic efforts were under way as the United States could be only days away from launching a large-scale military operation against Iran. The outlet assessed that such an operation could inflict heavy damage on Iran and trigger retaliatory attacks against Israel and several Gulf countries.

A diplomatic source told Axios that Qatari mediators remained in regular contact with the White House during Friday’s lengthy talks in Tehran. Citing positive progress in the negotiations, the source stressed that efforts to reach an agreement between Tehran and Washington were continuing.

According to the report, Qatari mediators are seeking to persuade Iran and the United States to accept a package of reciprocal measures that could be implemented within days, paving the way for renewed direct talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and other disputed issues.

However, a US official said disagreement over the sequencing of steps by the two sides remained the main obstacle to progress. The Trump administration wants Iran to make concessions on its nuclear programme as part of the process of resuming negotiations, while Tehran insists that the United States must first lift its naval blockade of Iran, release the country’s frozen assets and allow it to sell oil.

Qatar is also seeking to persuade Iran to allow UN inspectors to visit its bombed nuclear facilities as a confidence-building measure, in return for the United States easing some sanctions.

Trump Administration Divided Over Diplomacy or Military Action

Axios also reported divisions among Donald Trump’s inner circle over how to deal with Iran.

According to a US official, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are deeply sceptical that a nuclear agreement can be reached with Iran’s current government. They believe further weakening the Iranian government, including through new military strikes, should form part of Trump’s political legacy.

By contrast, Vice President JD Vance and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner support resuming negotiations. Trump himself, however, doubts that Iran will ultimately accept an agreement he considers acceptable.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Trump confirmed that negotiations were continuing and that the Iranian side still wanted talks. He also stressed that the United States had time to make a decision and that the current situation, although amounting to war, differed from conventional conflicts.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the economic pressure campaign known as “Operation Economic Exclusion”, is among Trump’s close advisers urging him to maintain economic pressure and avoid rushing back into military operations.

Regional Countries Push for Deal Before US Elections

A regional source told Axios that countries including Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia had urged Iran to agree to resume negotiations before the US congressional midterm elections on November 3.

According to a US official, if Republicans suffer a heavy defeat in the elections, Trump could become more inclined to order a large-scale military operation against Iran.

The official said an electoral defeat and a sense of political failure could prompt Trump to make a major and unexpected decision. The mediators have conveyed the same assessment to the Iranian side and believe Tehran’s best opportunity to reach an agreement is before the elections.

However, a White House official rejected that assessment, stressing that the election results would have no bearing on Trump’s decision-making regarding Iran.

Axios also reported that the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey had urged Trump in recent days to give diplomacy more time. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, by contrast, is seeking to persuade Trump to launch a joint military operation against Iran immediately after the US elections.

Warning of Attacks on Arab Countries’ Energy Facilities

The final section of the Axios report focused on the possible consequences for Arab countries in the region if the war resumes.

The outlet warned that a new round of conflict could not only cause widespread destruction in Iran but also inflict heavy losses on Gulf countries and deepen the global energy crisis.

According to Axios, Iran has warned that if the United States attacks its energy infrastructure, it will retaliate by targeting oil and gas facilities in five countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

The report also said that any new US attack on Iran would be carried out with Israeli participation and that Tehran would probably respond with missile strikes. Lebanon’s Hezbollah could also launch attacks against Israel.

Against this backdrop, the intensive negotiations by Qatari mediators in Tehran and Doha are aimed at preventing a new round of conflict whose consequences, according to Axios, could extend beyond Iran and Israel, threatening the security of Gulf countries and affecting global energy markets.