Weather experts predict the UAE will experience warmer and wetter than usual conditions in the winter of 2026–2027, with rainfall likely to exceed the seasonal average. The outlook has been linked to the strengthening El Niño climate phenomenon.

Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society, said this winter is expected to be warmer and wetter than usual, with increased rainfall across various parts of the country.

Temperatures 3°C to 5°C Above Normal

Al Jarwan said daytime and nighttime temperatures across large parts of the UAE have remained above the seasonal average in recent weeks.

Under normal conditions, nighttime temperatures in many parts of the country fall below 20°C by mid-October and below 15°C in mountainous areas, he said.

However, this year, nighttime temperatures in many areas have remained at around 23°C to 24°C, while daytime temperatures have continued to exceed 35°C.

Al Jarwan said recent temperatures have been around 3°C to 5°C above normal, depending on the location and time of measurement.

How Does El Niño Affect the UAE’s Weather?

El Niño is a natural phenomenon involving the unusual warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean and changes in atmospheric circulation, which can affect weather patterns worldwide.

Al Jarwan said water temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean have risen to around 3°C above average this year, indicating a strong El Niño event.

He forecast that El Niño would peak in November and December, with its effects continuing until February or March 2027.

Does More Rainfall Mean Flooding?

The chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society stressed that forecasts of above-average rainfall do not necessarily mean flooding will occur.

He said the risk of flooding depends not only on the amount of rainfall but also on its intensity, duration and distribution.

The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology previously said El Niño’s impact on the country is indirect and that above-normal rainfall is possible, but heavy downpours will depend on local weather conditions.

The centre urged residents to follow official weather bulletins and forecasts for updates and potential warnings.