The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast lower temperatures and an increased likelihood of early-morning fog as November begins and the country gradually moves towards winter. Average maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to fall by 4°C to 6°C compared with October.

November in the UAE typically brings clear to partly cloudy skies, colourful sunsets and cooler mornings, creating more favourable conditions for outdoor leisure activities and sightseeing.

Despite the potential impact of El Niño on regional weather conditions, the NCM expects milder daytime temperatures and cooler nights, particularly in mountainous areas and some inland parts of the country.

Siberian high-pressure system to drive temperatures lower

November coincides with the second seasonal transition from summer to winter, when the sun’s apparent southward movement gradually changes weather conditions across the UAE.

According to the NCM, the expansion of the Siberian high-pressure system towards the region will affect weather conditions in the UAE during the month, particularly in the second half of November.

The system will sustain the downward trend in temperatures, with cooler conditions expected to become more noticeable at night, especially in mountainous areas and some inland parts of the country.

Increased likelihood of fog in coastal areas

As relative humidity increases, particularly during the early morning, fog and mist are more likely to form across various parts of the UAE.

Mild air masses passing over the sea and moving inland are among the factors expected to increase humidity and cause fog, particularly in coastal areas.

Meteorological statistics cited in the report recorded 21 fog events and five days of mist in November.

Prevailing winds during the month usually blow from the southeast in the morning before shifting to westerly or northwesterly during the day. Wind speeds may also increase at times, particularly during storms.

Rain and strong winds possible

The NCM said weather systems accompanied by cold air masses in the upper atmosphere could lead to cloud formation and rainfall in some parts of the UAE.

As convective clouds develop, rainfall may intensify, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and blowing dust.

According to meteorological records, the highest November rainfall was recorded on Dalma Island in 2013, when 211.4mm fell.

November forecast for temperature, wind speed and humidity

The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology issued the following expected indicators for the month:

🌡 Average temperature: 24°C to 26°C

🌡 Average maximum temperature: 29°C to 32°C

🌡 Average minimum temperature: 19°C to 21°C

💨 Average wind speed: 10.6km/h

💧 Average relative humidity: 57 per cent

💧 Average maximum relative humidity: 76 to 85 per cent

💧 Average minimum relative humidity: 29 to 39 per cent

The centre stressed that the forecast figures may change depending on weather conditions.

Historical November weather records in the UAE

According to recorded data, the UAE’s highest November temperature was 40.1°C, registered in Sweihan in 2024.

The lowest temperature recorded during the month was 4.1°C at Jebel Jais in 2009.

The highest wind speed recorded in November was 97km/h in Al Ruwais in 2013.

Warmer, wetter winter forecast for the UAE

Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society, previously told Khaleej Times that El Niño could bring the UAE a warmer, more humid and wetter winter than usual this year.

He said seasonal forecasts indicate that temperatures, humidity and rainfall during the cooler months could exceed usual averages.

Al Jarwan stressed that the forecast does not mean flooding is certain, but rather indicates a likelihood of increased rainfall compared with normal conditions.

He also forecast that El Niño would peak in November and December, with its effects continuing until February or March.

According to the latest climate outlook cited in the report, there is an estimated 96 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will persist until March 2027, potentially bringing temperatures and rainfall above the UAE’s usual averages.

However, experts stress that seasonal forecasts indicate only broad weather trends and cannot be used to determine precise conditions on specific days or in particular areas.