Despite the start of autumn, hot weather continues across the UAE, with temperatures reaching 43°C in some areas. Experts say regional weather conditions, global warming and the El Niño climate phenomenon may influence the country’s temperature and rainfall patterns.

Maximum temperatures across the UAE have ranged from 37°C to 43°C in recent days, with some locations recording readings up to 4°C above normal. According to the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology, the country’s average daily temperature in October is 29.7°C.

On Saturday, October 17, the temperature in Sweihan reached 41.6°C, while parts of the country experienced rainfall. The National Centre of Meteorology had previously said maximum temperatures in inland areas could range from 39°C to 44°C during October.

One factor under scrutiny is El Niño, which affects global weather patterns through the unusual warming of Pacific Ocean waters. However, scientists stress that its direct impact on UAE temperatures is relatively limited, with global warming, sea temperatures and regional atmospheric conditions also playing significant roles.

High humidity has further intensified the heat. The average maximum relative humidity in October is about 78 per cent, which, combined with lower overnight temperatures, can create conditions for morning fog.

Alongside the heat, parts of the UAE have experienced heavy rain and hail. On October 15, areas of Sharjah, including Al Dhaid, Wishah and Mleiha, were hit by heavy rain and hail.

The following day, rainfall was also reported in Al Ain, Hatta, Kalba and Ras Al Khaimah, with 7.4mm recorded in Al Amerah. Hail also fell in Margham, Dubai, and parts of Fujairah on October 19.

According to the National Centre of Meteorology, there is a chance of rainfall in some areas from October 18 to 22, while wind speeds could reach 50kph.

The centre also said there is a 96 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will continue from November 2026 to March 2027. This could bring temperatures and rainfall near or above average, but does not necessarily mean heavy rain or flooding will occur.

As the UAE enters the seasonal period known as Al Wasm in mid-October, temperatures are expected to decline gradually. Authorities have urged residents to monitor weather warnings and avoid flood-prone routes during rainfall.